Toronto Prices and Markets Conference
November 7 - 9, 2014
The First Step to Returning to Sound Money:
requiring 100% reserves on bank demand deposits
by Patrick
Barron
The most important characteristic of
sound money is that it is backed one hundred percent by reserves. Let us
acknowledge that the fiat money that we all use is comprised of pieces of paper
in our pockets and demand accounts in banks. We may access our demand accounts
in banks via paper checks, electronic debit cards or some other means.
Two Ways for New Money to Enter the Economy
In the fiat system we currently live in
there are two methods by which new money enters the economy. In the first
method, the Fed conducts open market operations in which it buys an asset with
money it creates out of thin air. It pays for these assets with money that it
creates out of thin air.
Once created, most of these new fiat dollars
end up as reserves in the banking system and will remain there until the Fed
sells some asset in a reversal of its prior open market operation. It can sell
the asset only by offering it at a price low enough to entice buyers, which may
mean raising the interest rate.
The second method by which money can
enter the economy is via bank lending. Under the present fractional reserve
banking system, one dollar of new reserves can be pyramided into around ten
dollars of new money. The bank credits a
demand account when it makes a loan. This money was created out of thin air by
the banking system. Historically, banks have created more money via their
lending operations than the Fed has via open market operations, because each
dollar of new reserves can create multiples of new money via bank lending
The Explosion of Excess Reserves
Prior to the Fed's unprecedented
expansion of base money in 2008, there were very few excess reserves in the
banking system. The banks quickly expanded lending--and, thus, the money
supply--to convert any new, Fed produced excess reserves into required
reserves. Banks simply used their reserves to the fullest in order to make more
money.
Unique Opportunity to Mandate One Hundred Percent
Reserves
To stop inflation in the Austrian
sense--i.e., stop the increase in the money supply--requires two things. First,
the Fed must stop increasing reserves. Second, the banking system must stop
pyramiding these reserves into new money. Both must be stopped, but ending
fractional reserve banking addresses the most immediate danger, because the
banking system capacity for increasing the money supply is many times that of
the Fed's capacity for manufacturing new reserves.
However, there is a new, bigger danger
now. Whereas in the past total reserves were very low and there were almost no
excess reserves in the banking system, today the numbers are growing each
month. As of October 15, 2014 excess reserves amounted to $2.693 trillion. The ratio of required reserves ($.132
trillion) to bank demand accounts ($1.615 trillion) was 8.2%.
If
the banking system utilizes these excess reserves as efficiently in the future
as it has in the past, checking balances could increase by twelve fold for each
dollar of excess reserves. But it
gets worse.
Checking balances could go from $1.615
trillion to $34.456 trillion (($2.693 trillion/8.2%) + $1.615 trillion). If we
add the $8.619 trillion of savings, money market accounts, and small
certificates of deposit to the mix of reservable liabilities, the ratio (i.e.,
required reserves/reservable liabilities) drops to 1.29% (($.132 trillion/($1.615
trillion + $8.619 trillion)) from 8.2%. Total bank deposits that effectively can be
withdrawn upon demand would increase by 77.5 fold for each new dollar of
reserves!!!! This means that total reservable liabilities could go to $219
trillion (($2.693 trillion/1.29%) + $1.615 trillion +$8.619 trillion). Therefore, excess reserves of this proportion
are a ticking time bomb of monetary inflation.
The Realization Rothbard's Deposit and Loan Banks
The obvious way to end fractional
reserve banking is to raise the reserve from its current, multi-tiered, complex
system to requiring one hundred percent reserves. Fortunately, the Fed's
expansion of excess reserves has given us an opportunity, that may be fleeting,
to divide the banking system into deposit banking and loan banking and require
one hundred percent reserves on deposit banking. Total bank reserves are greater than bank
demand deposits...$1.615 trillion of demand deposits and $2.825 of total bank reserves. The Fed could require that the new deposit
banks maintain one hundred percent reserves on their current level of demand
deposits without creating more reserves. The deposit banks would not be allowed
to lend their demand deposits. Demand deposit customers would pay the deposit
bank for money transfer services. The banking system's other deposits of
savings, money market, and certificates of deposit would move onto the
liability side of the loan bank. The
loan banks assets would be its loans and investments. The deposit bank's assets would be fiat money
reserves. The deposit bank would make
its money through fees alone. It would not be allowed to invest its customers' deposits. Customers'
savings, money market, and certificate of deposit accounts at the loan banking
side would be backed by its loans and securities, the size of the bank's
capital account, and the banker's reputation. These non-demand, savings and
time accounts would be seen for what they really are: loans made to the bank.
Enforcing 100% reserves on bank demand
deposits would mean that the banking system would be defined by the following
equation:
Bank
demand accounts = Bank reserves (cash in bank vaults plus reserve accounts at
the Fed)
Adding "cash held outside bank
vaults" to both sides of the above equation gives this result:
M1 = The Monetary Base
Transition Issues
The transition from our current
system--in which demand accounts are mixed with time accounts and both are lent
or used to purchase securities, which results in multiple owners of demand
funds--will require some time to sort out. Here are five such issues:
1. Currently the public expects that
savings, money market, and some short term certificates of deposits may be
redeemed upon demand with no loss of principle and some insignificant loss of
interest, just as it expects to redeem checking deposits upon demand. This will
not be the case when these deposits are moved to the loan bank. There may be
some overnight financing of trade, for which the depositor might earn interest,
but most deposits in the loan bank will carry a longer maturity, so that the
banker can conduct proper asset/liability management; i.e., ensuring that his
loans are being repaid at approximately the same time as his deposits mature,
so that he can meet his depositors' possible withdrawal of funds.
2. A corollary of the above issue is the
possibility that, prior to the imposition of 100% reserves on demand deposits,
current holders of savings and money market accounts may choose to move some of
these funds into their demand accounts in order to ensure that the deposits are
backed by fiat reserves. They would conclude that the current interest rate on
these funds is insufficient to entice them to leave them in the loan bank, secured
by loans of unknown quality. Savings, money market, and small certificates of
deposit comprise $8.619 trillion as of October 15, 2014. There are not enough
excess reserves in the system at the present time to back all these deposit
funds by fiat reserves. Nevertheless, the banking system would still have $1.210
trillion in excess reserves after requiring that all demand accounts be backed
one hundred percent by reserves ($2.825 trillion of total reserves minus $1.615
trillion of demand accounts). So, the banking system could absorb the public
transfer of roughly one trillion of its roughly eight trillion dollars of
savings and money market accounts into the deposit banks. Then, the loan banks
would have to entice the rest of the depositors not to switch by raising the
rate paid on their deposits. It would have $10.675 trillion in loans and
securities as assets (per www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/), which
should yield sufficient income to entice current holders of savings and time
deposits to leave their funds in the loan bank. The other way to resolve this
issue would be to have the Fed create the necessary excess reserves and give
them to the banking system. This remedy was suggested by Professor George Reisman
at the Mises Circle in Newport Beach, California in 2009.
Regardless of the mix of demand deposits
to savings deposits after the one hundred percent fiat reserve requirement
becomes law, all excess reserves must be removed from the banking system and
the public must understand that normal commercial law will require that only
demand deposits are backed by reserves.
A demand deposit must display all of the
following characteristics:
a. The balance in the deposit bank does not earn
interest, because the banker cannot lend the money to someone else.
b. The depositor pays fees for the deposit bank's
services.
c. The balance of the account must be instantly
redeemable at full face value upon demand.
d. The redemption does not require prior notice to the
bank.
The deposit bank's demand deposits must
equal its reserves, whether held in the form of cash or as a deposit at the
central bank. A new loan could be made at the loan bank only after repayment of
an existing loan or a decision by a holder of a demand deposit to transfer some
of his money to the loan bank in order to earn interest. In other words, loans
must be funded out of a prior act of saving and not from fiat money creation.
3. The loan side of the banking system
may sustain losses in the near term, since the interest rate charged to
borrowers cannot be adjusted upward on most loan contracts in order to pay for
the probable increase in deposit rates required to entice savings and time
depositors to keep their funds in the loan bank. The loan banks would have some
reduced costs, such as the expense of paying for the money transfer and
settlement system--checks, debit cards, etc. These services would be
transferred to the deposit bank, where the depositors pay fees for all
services. Plus, the FDIC would be liquidated, so neither deposit nor loan banks
would incur that expense or the expense of paying for periodic FDIC
examinations. In the long run, after the system has stabilized, the market
would determine both loan and deposit rates, and only the most astute bankers
would survive and prosper.
4. Legislation is required to mandate
100% reserves on demand deposits. Such legislation would finally correct the
underlying error that has plagued the banking system for two hundred years;
i.e., the series of court cases in England--Carr v.Carr (1811), Devaynes v.
Noble (1816), and Foley v. Hill and Others (1848) that ruled that a deposit is a loan to the bank
and not a bailment.
5. Stopping the money printing presses most
likely will trigger a severe recession, as those non-wealth generating, bubble
activities, which are supported by a continuing source of new money will
collapse and be replaced over time by real wealth generating activity. But one
should not conclude that it was the stopping of the money printing presses that
created this situation. Money printing produced the bubble activities that must
be purged at some point, either earlier, when we have some control over money
matters, or later following a general, catastrophic economic collapse.
Conclusion
The Fed has created an opportunity to
make the move to 100% required reserves on demand deposits. The banking system
would be divided into deposit banks, which would hold only demand deposits and
for which the 100% reserve requirement would pertain, and loan banks that would
act as fiduciary intermediaries for those seeking to invest their excess demand
funds. We would have an honest banking system under the same rule of commercial
and criminal law as all other commercial enterprises. As long as deposit
bankers kept 100% reserves, the money supply could neither shrink nor expand.
Loan banks would disclose that their liabilities were held at risk, which is no
different than buying a stock or bond. Reputable private auditors would ensure
that deposit bankers were following the 100% reserve rule and that loan bankers
were not operating a Ponzi scheme. Ordinary district attorneys would enforce
the law, eliminating the need and expense for government regulators and deposit
insurance. Stockholders would be subject to unlimited liability for fraud.
This proposal deals only with ending the
banking side of money inflation. The next step would be to ensure that no
entity can manufacture fiat reserves out of thin air. Either the Fed itself would be prohibited by
law from doing so, via its open market operations, or Congress could abolish
the Fed and establish some agency to insure that the now fix supply of money is
backed by the government's gold reserves at whatever price is required to back
all of M1 by the Fed's 261.5 million ounces of gold. At that point anyone could
take gold to this agency and get dollars at the fixed rate or take dollars to
this agency and get gold at the fixed rate. Once the public understands the
true nature of money as something that has legal backing to a commodity at a
contract rate--such as the dollar to gold ratio of $35 per ounce, as
established at Bretton Woods--it would understand that any trusted agency could
produce money, not just governments. At that point legal tender laws could be
abolished and money production would be privatized and governed by normal
commercial and criminal law. Sound money would have returned to its rightful
place in the market.