Thursday, July 21, 2022

The Fallacy of Calls for "A Manhattan Project" to Solve National Economic Challenges

 

The World War II project to build an atomic bomb is seen by many as a template for government action to solve what appear to be national economic problems beyond the scope of private enterprise. The analogy fails on several levels.

 

First of all, the analogy fails in the sense that the Manhattan Project was not an economic problem per se. It was a military development and procurement problem. There was, and still is, no commercial demand for a weapon of mass destruction.

 

Secondly, there is a difference between very large commercial projects and very large government projects. As Ludwig von Mises explained in his first great book Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth, economic calculation is possible only with private ownership of the means of production. Government does not own means of production in the true, private sense of the term. It uses only resources that it has confiscated from the private economy.

 

Because government is not a private entity with resources it has acquired through cooperative exchange, it is missing the vital link of capitalist entrepreneurship and the concomitant hierarchy of ordinal preferences from which economic calculation flows. In other words, government managers would not know which projects to pursue nor which factors of production to use.

 

For example, should government engage in a vast project for national energy self-sufficiency? If so, should it build wind and solar farms, or should it expand nuclear power or even fossil fuels? If government pursues all the above, in what proportions should it invest? An equal amount of money to wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas, coal, and perhaps geothermal, hydroelectric, or some other source? Without private ownership of the means of production, there can be no rational answer and no true economic answer.

 

A further and even more basic problem arises regarding whether or not government should seek any economic goals at all other than allowing the people to make private decisions with minimal regulatory encumbrances. Government managers have no special insight into the future of markets. In fact they have little reason to labor to do so. As a result we see government managers squandering vast amounts of public money on completely wasteful projects like wind and solar energy fields. They pursue their own private preferences just as Public Choice Theory predicts. They are not subjected to the discipline of the market and owners who demand a return on their investments.

 

In Conclusion, Expect the Worst

 

In conclusion I fear that the US and other Western governments are poised to waste vast amounts of money pursuing completely fruitless projects. The Ukraine War has disrupted economies and seems to justify government intervention to "fix" the most visible adverse consequence--skyrocketing energy and food prices. The West seems determined to keep in place its economic sanctions on Russia. Rather than adding insult to injury by implementing a "Manhattan Project" for energy and food, the Western economies should deregulate these markets and reduce taxes. Since deregulation and lower taxes require less management and enforcement, governments who desire to appear to be "doing something" about problems they had a good deal in causing can be expected to make things even worse. You heard it here first.

Thursday, July 14, 2022

The Fed Cannot Go Bankrupt; However, It Can Bankrupt the Country

A recent essay on the Mises Wire triggered quite a bit of discussion among a group of Austrian school economists. Paul H. Kupiec and Alex J. Pollock's "Who Owns Federal Reserve Losses and How Will They Impact Monetary Policy? [5]" became the focal point for a wide-ranging discussion of monetary issues that got to the heart of our monetary and overall economic future.

Thursday, June 2, 2022

My letter to the NY Times re: Stewardesses in the Age of Airline Regulation

 From: Patrick Barron

Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2022 9:50 AMTo: NY Times <letters@nytimes.com>Subject: Stewardesses in the age of airline regulation
Dear Sirs:
I read with interest your two book reviews about the airlines and their relationship with stewardesses: Fly Girl and The Great Stewardess Rebellion. One was a memoir and the other a history of labor relations between stewardesses and the airlines. Both were very interesting reviews. However, one should take into account the bigger picture. President Carter deregulated the airlines in October 1978. This changed everything. Like all price regulated industries, airline ticket prices before 1978 were strictly regulated; therefore, the airlines tried to compete with unregulated amenities, such as gourmet dinners and pretty stewardesses, both of which appealed to their primarily businessmen clientele. Price deregulation removed this incentive. Today's clientele seems to be primarily families. Planes are packed. One is lucky to get a cup of coffee and a small packet of pretzels from very hardworking and always pleasant stewards and stewardesses. The democratization of airline travel has removed the necessity of competing on frills of all kinds, not just the physical attractiveness of stewardesses.
Patrick Barron
20 McMullan Farm Lane
West Chester, PA 19382
610-793-3605

Thursday, May 12, 2022

In Defense of the Rothbardian Two Bank Reform

 

In his recent essay for Goldmoney.com, titled Building a Better Banking System, Alasdair Macleod agrees with the Austrian view that sound money would help prevent a looming "combined currency, asset, and banking crisis", yet challenges the practicality of the "Two Bank" banking reform proposal that was popularized by Murray N. Rothbard in his 1983 book The Mystery of Banking. Macleod instead proposes that the key reform would be to eliminate the limited liability protection for bank stockholders. The prospect of having a bank's owners' personal assets seized to satisfy a bank's depositors would be sufficient to instill discipline and probity in the place of the current moral hazard risk fostered by limited liability and government deposit insurance. The Austrian position is that the "Two Bank" reform would eliminate one source of currency expansion; i.e., the ability of banks and banks alone to create money ex nihilo (out of thin air) via their privilege to engage in fractional reserve banking (FRB). Macleod believes that eliminating this privilege would cause credit to dry up and the economy to suffer. (The central bank's ability to create reserves ex nihilo is the other source of money expansion and is not directly addressed by Macleod or the "Two Bank" reform proponents.)

 

There is much more to Macleod's essay. It deserves to be read and reread very carefully, for there is much to learn. Before we return to his proposal to remove the limited liability for ownership for banks, let us quickly review Rothbard's "Two Bank" proposal.

 

What is the "Two Bank" proposal?

 

Under the Rothbard proposal, banking would be divided into two separate legal entities--the Deposit Bank and the Loan Bank. Funds deposited in the Deposit Bank would be backed one-hundred percent by reserves, whether gold, silver, or even fiat currency. The Deposit Bank would not be allowed by law to lend these funds. The deposit would be a form of bailment, in which the ownership of the property does not change hands. The depositor still owns the amount of his deposit, and the Deposit Bank is merely the custodian. The depositor would use these funds just as he does now--to pay obligations--using any of the modern methods of money transfer such as check, debit card, or reserve certificates issued by the Deposit Bank or even the central bank. Of course, the Deposit Bank would earn its funds only from fees for its services, since it would not be allowed by law to lend these funds to earn interest income.

 

Macleod considers that these fees would be a major obstacle to public acceptance of the system, since today most checking accounts are free and may even earn some small amount of interest for the depositor. However, Deposit Banks would be offering a valuable service in a competitive environment. The cost of handling mostly electronic transfers of funds is very small, and banks today actual earn money from every debit card transaction that they process. In fact some banks require that the depositor engage in a certain number of debit card transactions each month in order to get fee discounts. In addition, for many years banks have earned substantial fee income for handling their customers' overdraft transactions. Banks also earn substantial fee income from their ATM networks for handling non-customer transactions. As a result for many years banks have been offering free checking accounts with no minimum balance in order to capture what can be substantial fee income. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that checking accounts still would be widely accepted by the general population.

 

The Loan Bank

 

A depositor of the Deposit Bank who wishes to put his money to work would transfer some of his funds to the Loan Bank in order to earn interest income. At this point the Loan Bank owns the funds for some agreed upon period of time. The Loan Bank invests these funds--it matters not whether to single projects, such as an oil well, a basket of loans similar to a mutual fund portfolio, or the bank's general loan portfolio--with a promise to return them to the customer with interest.

 

Two facts become clear. One, lending funds to the Loan Bank, which are further lent to the Loan Bank's customers, does not affect the money supply. And, two, the lent funds carry some risk to the lender (the Loan Bank) and the customer who lent his deposit funds to the Loan Bank. As is the case today, some loans may not be repaid, will be repaid only partially, and perhaps not at the agreed upon time. Depending upon the terms of the agreement between the customer and the Loan Bank, the Loan Bank may absorb these losses with its capital account and repay the customer in full and on time, or the customer may lose all or part of his lent funds and/or not be repaid on time.

 

Such is the inescapable nature of banking and lending. All loans carry some risk of non-repayment.

 

Two Essential Reforms

 

There are two essential reforms that are key to the Rothbardian "Two Bank" system. One, the Deposit Bank is subject to the same commercial code as any other business. It does not enjoy any special protection for using its customers' funds. If the Deposit Bank lent or leased the customers' deposits, it would engage in fraud. Two, the Loan Bank does not enjoy the privilege of engaging in fractional reserve banking, whereby it can create deposit money out of thin air. All loans would be funded out of customer savings. (The Deposit Bank's customer lends funds to the Loan Bank, which further lends these same funds to its borrower. The Deposit Bank's reserves remain unchanged; only the ownership of the funds changes.) The interest rate would balance the demand for loans with the supply of customer savings.

 

Macleod quotes Ludwig von Mises from "Senior's Lecture on Monetary Problems (1931)" that the danger arises when the central bank intervenes (presumably via deposit insurance) to protect the banks from their own irresponsible lending and that fluctuations in bank credit are behind the boom/bust cycle. The former danger is cured by making the Deposit Bank purely a custodian of the depositors' funds. The latter is cured by prohibiting the extension of bank credit that is not funded by savings; i.e., eliminating fractional reserve banking.

 

The "Two Bank" reform and Roman Law

 

Macleod goes to great length to explain the origin of credit in the West as emanating from Roman Law. It is a very interesting discussion and well worth studying. In Roman Law there was a distinction between ownership of property and a duty to repay it, which I understand as the difference in the status of money in the Deposit Bank (still owned by the customer) and the Loan Bank (owned by the Loan Bank but with a duty to repay it according to contract). According to Macleod, these are at the heart of the "difficulties of overturning the entrenched legal position of Roman, or natural law." But it appears that Rothbard's "Two Bank" reform is compatible with Roman Law. Ownership would not be transferred when a customer places funds in the Deposit Bank, but he would transfer ownership of the funds to the Loan Bank and the Loan Bank would have a duty to repay the loan. The risk of non-repayment clearly is with the latter and not the former. It is acceptance of this risk that allows the Loan Bank customer to earn interest. There is no such thing as a risk-free loan or risk-free investment.

 

Macleod sees one further difficulty of the "Two Bank" reform. Only a fraction of the population own gold or silver; therefore, Macleod fears that most of the citizenry would not be able to participate in the system. First of all, there is no requirement that tying the currency to gold is a necessary step in creating the "Two Bank" reform. In fact, it is more than likely that initially the central bank would still exist and money would still be fiat, with fiat currency used as reserves just as they are used as reserves now. Secondly, eventually Congress could abolish the Fed and distribute its gold reserves among the banks according to their level of demand deposits, thereby establishing a fixed relationship between the dollar and gold. At this point the dollar would simply be a shorthand for a certain amount of gold. Eventually, the term "dollar" could be dropped and the unit of currency would become a certain amount of gold. It's been done before. This was the situation in the US from after the Civil War (1865) to the founding of the Federal Reserve System (1913). The US enjoyed one of its most expansionist periods in its history and no central bank existed at the time.

 

Regarding Removing Limited Liability Protection

 

Macleod's proposal to eliminate limited liability protection for banks has much merit. But other businesses enjoy this protection, so why remove it only for the banking business? An alternative approach would allow banks to eschew limited liability in order to attract customers who are not willing to accept as much risk. If the Loan Banks' owners accepted full/unlimited liability, there would be much less (but not zero) risk of non-repayment of funds. Therefore, the Loan Banks' customers must be willing to accept a lower return. Those who want higher returns could open accounts at Loan Banks that have limited liability. The risk of non-repayment of the customers' loans to the Loan Banks would be somewhat greater, because the banks' owners' personal assets could not be accessed in order to repay their customers. In either case I am certain that both Macleod and the Rothbardians would recommend that governments liquidate their so-called deposit insurance protection programs, which are not compatible with any free market approach.

 

Conclusion

 

In conclusion, the Rothbardian "Two Bank" reform is compatible with the free market. It would eliminate the source of the boom/bust credit cycle by eliminating the ability of banks to create money ex nihilo via lending. Bank lending (by the Loan Bank) would not affect the money supply, because only savings would be lent. Customer deposits (into the Deposit Bank) would be backed one-hundred percent by reserves, as is compatible with ordinary commercial law. The only bank examination required of the Deposit Bank would be periodic audits to ensure that the bank had sufficient reserves for its deposits. Expensive and intrusive examinations and regulations by banking authorities would be eliminated, because their reason for existence would be gone; i.e., the liquidation of deposit insurance. Much great bank expense would be reduced, and competition eventually would pass this reduced expense along to the public via more services and more interest return. In short, bankers could return to their primary task of being good bankers and not have the additional task of being good followers of ever increasing regulations.

 

Thursday, April 28, 2022

My letter to the Wall Street Journal re: Debt Forgiveness

 Re: Biden to forgive $238 million in cosmetology student loans

Since when did America become a dictatorship? Isn't Congress suppose to have a say in spending? These loans are made by private banks and are only guaranteed by the government. Can the government simply inform the private banks that its customers need not repay their loans and then the banks must go through the process of trying to get the government to honor its guarantee? And why is the US Department of Education guaranteeing loans in the first place?
This abuse of the rule of law has to stop.
Patrick Barron

My letter to the Wall Street Journal: Why the ECB must end QE and all other market interventions

 Re: A Big Risk Hanging Over European Banks: Leveraged Loans

The cognitive dissonance of the ECB is clearly exposed in its desire that banks make more loans, which they can do only by taking more risk, and at the same time worrying about banks taking on more risk. It is past time for central banks to admit that they really cannot stimulate the economy with monetary policy. What looks like "stimulus" is really nothing more than taking on more risk and all its accompanying evils.
Patrick Barron

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

The Objective Price of Gold

An interesting exercise to determine what the objective price of gold should be in dollars terms is to ask what exchange ratio would be required for the Fed/Treasury to redeem every dollar for gold without running out of gold until the last dollar had been tendered for specie. (The Fed/Treasury claims to have 261.5 million ounces of gold.)

I have been updating a chart to follow this trend for many years now. But here is the bottom line for the Monetary Base, M1, and M2. 
The Monetary Base consists of balances by member banks in reserve accounts at the Fed plus money in circulation.
M1 consists of money in circulation plus checking deposits at banks.
M2 consists of M1 plus savings deposits and money market mutual funds.
Monetary Base: $23,000 ($6.104 trillion divided by 261.5 million ounces of gold)
M1: $79,000 ($20.567 trillion divided by 261.5 million ounces of gold)
M2: $84,000 ($21.840 trillion divided by 261.5 million ounces of gold)
The current market price of gold in dollar terms, per today's Wall Street Journal, is $1,913.
Draw your own conclusions.