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Letter from America
December 1, 2020
As I write my first "Letter from America" the US election is still undecided. One would think that this is a topic number one on everyone's mind, but such is not the case. The first topic of any conversation is about Covid restrictions. It's hard to keep track of them in the US, because each state sets its own. I live in southeast Pennsylvania about thirty miles from Philadelphia. But I am actually closer to the states of Delaware and New Jersey than to Pennsylvania's largest city, Philadelphia. The rules are different in each state and they change all the time, making complying difficult if not impossible. But here's the thing: No one seems to care. Oh, sure, everyone wears a mask of some sort indoors and some wear them outdoors, too. But for the ordinary consumer, the rules are about the same. The real challenge is for businesses, especially restaurants, bars, and school districts. The people running these services have a hard time of it. Their rules change often: one day restaurants cannot seat anyone indoors, carryout only or possibly outdoor dining where possible. Later they may be allowed to open one fourth or one half of their tables indoors, only to have that relaxation of the rules and a move toward normalcy rescinded when the Covid case numbers start to increase. We see more and more signs outside long established restaurants and bars thanking the public for their patronage over the years but advising us that their establishment has closed down for good. Some folks who track these things project that over half of America's restaurants may close permanently, a loss of wealth that is staggering in total and a tragedy for those owners.
Like the UK, there is little to no
scientific evidence put forward that these restrictions work. But everyone
knows where these restrictions originated--out of the very opinionated mind of
some politician. As a result, slowly but assuredly the public health and
political authorities are losing credibility. They are becoming the butt of
jokes, the sure indication of eventual irrelevancy.
But, we are not there yet.
What worries many of us libertarian is
that the restrictions on our supposedly sacrosanct liberties have been usurped
with hardly a dissent. And where there have been dissents the restrictions on
liberties continue. For example, the federal district court in my home state of
Pennsylvania ruled that the governor had no power to lock down businesses. Yet
the lock downs continue with a temporary stay of the court's ruling. This
emboldens the petty tyrants to even greater and more frequent insults to our
liberties.
On to the election and its
yet-to-be-decided winner.
The Republicans are attacking the
results of several "battleground" states, namely Wisconsin, Michigan,
Georgia, and especially Pennsylvania. There were significant voter ID issues
and vote counting problems in all these states. At present it looks like the
Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, will prevail. But President Trump has not
conceded, and the result may be decided in the Supreme Court. Again, this is
very complicated, due to America's decentralized and indirect system of
choosing the president. Each state has its own election certification rules and
each state determines how its votes in the Electoral College will be
distributed. It's the Electoral College that determines the president, not the
popular vote. Each state gets one elector for each Senator and Representative. Therefore,
the least populated states get three Electoral College votes--one for each of
its two senators and one for its representative in the House. Each state
legislature certifies its electoral college distribution, but the US Supreme
Court could overturn that certification. Forget that the mainstream media have
"given the election to Biden". The mainstream media has no such
power. The Electoral College chooses the president and that hasn't happened
yet.
But here is the crux--no matter which
candidate eventually is chosen by the Electoral College, the other party will
not accept that decision. Republicans will claim voter fraud and Democrats will
claim that a court overruled the people. In other words, America is divided
politically, and an election will not change that fact. Therefore, no matter
who "wins", expect a continuation of bitter feuding and animosities,
maybe even violence. This likely will lead to a "do nothing"
government with neither party controlling the White House and both houses of
Congress. Many believe a divided government is good for the country, for it
cannot enact legislation and make a mischief of itself. But, the president has
lots of leeway to use executive orders to rescind current regulations and enact
new ones. There is little doubt that a President Biden would reinstate many
currently-rescinded Obama administration regulations on the coal, natural gas, and
oil industries. This would be bad for America even though the environmentalists
would be happy. But, a Biden administration might abandon President Trump's
tariffs and undeclared trade war with China. This would be good for America as
a whole, even though it would anger favored domestic industries.
The elephant in the corner is the out of
control federal budget. The annual deficit is over one trillion dollars. There
is no real discussion of lowering it through spending cuts. In fact, a Biden
victory would see attempts to expand the welfare state through making Medicare
open to all age groups and/or adopting a Universal Basic Income. Both parties
are discussing another round of Covid-inspired stimulus checks to all
Americans. A three trillion dollar package passed in 2020. Another, perhaps
somewhat smaller, package is being discussed now by both parties as if money
printing and federal government debt beyond imagination and beyond the
possibility of repayment in dollars of similar purchasing power as borrowed
just simply do not matter. No one in government or at the Fed care one whit, so
thoroughly engrained are they in the toxic waste of Keynesian economic theory,
now called "Modern Monetary Theory". MMT posits the falsehood that we
simply owe the debt to ourselves! It's one pocket owing the money to another
pocket, don't you see? This may be the greatest hoax of all time.
Stay tuned.
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